allblackraven
Hall of Famer
It was also imperative to get a WR in 2014.
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RB Thread
- Thread starter JoeyFlex5
- Start date
Dom McRaven
Hall of Famer
We also don't know when the migraines that Collins apparently has will affect him long-term. I honestly didn't know he wore that visor to help avoid migraines. That could be a problem going forward.
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Tank
Hall of Famer
Hopefully they learned from their mistakes. Time to think playmakers, move away a bit from BPA.
Tank
Hall of Famer
Valid concern, but I hope not. It seemed to affect him sporadically towards the end of the season.
Ravensnation5220
Ravens Ring of Honor
Ya i was just watching sony michel lol. He looks dynamic. I just feel like our running backs need something different, some versatility and i think a guy like Bo can bring that. So can Michel, Chubb, Wadley, etc.
Dom McRaven
Hall of Famer
Oh of course, but I think it was also that teams didn't respect our passing game (hell, we didn't/don't respect our own passing game lol) and tried their damnedest to stop Collins and force Flacco to beat them with the "weapons" we had.
allblackraven
Hall of Famer
Lol yep. Secondary made of members of our board would put up a good fight vs Ravens receivers.
All we’d have to do is run some sort of shallow zone with a deep safety towards wallace’s side and we’d legit have a decent chance
I love our backfield, but we don’t know if Kenneth Dixon can stay on the field. I feel we should add another back through the draft and this is the last draft to get legit RB help for a bit. It's not a renaissance so much as an conglomeration of multiple factors the most important being that:
#1
RB crops went into the toilet starting in 1987/1988 (in terms of birth year) and the dead period ended between 1992 and 1993. This helps to explain the dearth of backs in the league until recently. Look at the 2009-2014 RB crops. They are a house of horrors.
#2
Additionally, at the time people thought the problem was that with rule changes emphasizing the pass, and deemphasizing running, rb’s were in less demand, and perceived as less valuable. This is only half right. It is true that running backs are less valuable than they used to be. Enough studies have been done to uncover the sharp declines scene in positional productivity as rb’s close in on age 30. As a result teams are less inclined to pay up on 2nd contracts and especially on third contracts. They just unload the backs and draft replacements.
#3
However as mentioned in point #1, the key reason running games were dempehasized was a combination of the dearth of quality running backs crops in combination with rule changes which leads to point #3 which is:
Starting in 2015 we had a series of RB crops that injected a gigantic pile of perceived high end and second tier talent into the league. Depending upon whom you talked to, the '15 class was either loaded with RB talent, or loaded with second tier RB talent. Either way you look at it, when the '15 class came along we saw Todd Gurley, Tevin Coleman, Ameer Abdullah, Melvin Gordon, Duke Johnson TJ Yeldon, Jay Ajayi, and David Johnson, '16 was yet another ghastly crop but with Zeke Elliot in, the problems were glossed over, then '17 came in, and was viewed as similar to the '14 WR class (regarded as the best ever for the position alongside 1996), ditto 2018. In '17 you had 4 RB's with top 20 grades in Fournette, Cook, Mixon, and McCaffrey, then a huge pile of second tier options like Kareem Hunt, Alvin Kamara, Foreman, Perine, Aaron Jones, Marlon Mack, and a third tier with Gallman, Cohen, Jamal Williams etc. Just incredibly deep and top heavy. 2018 was perceived as similarly talented, with a thinner cream up top (Barkley and Guice) but just as deep . In 2019 this spicket shuts off again. Will it be another dead period like 2009-2014? Who knows, we just know that in 2019, it's all about the WR with a crop that would likely rank in the top 3-4 of the past 25 years at the position while RB won't be very special.
In terms of targets you have: (I still have more tape to watch on all of them, but this is my initial projection)
Tier Barkley: A tier all his own, considered the elite of the elite w/a grade potentially as high as any RB drafted since A.P. in 2007. Many view him as better and cleaner as a prospect than Zeke, Fournette, Cook or Mixon, and as talented as A.P. He will be long gone before we pick.
Tier 1:
Guice: In 2016 there were times when people spoke of him in a similar light to Fournette viewing him as as talented or perhaps even moreso. He will be the RB available at our slot potentially worth the selection, maybe, if Ozzie wants to go this route and draft a back out of LSU.
Tier 2:
Chubb: Viewed as the best RB in the '17-'18 class before he tore his ACL in 2015. Has never appeared as fast or as possessing that same second gear he had in 2014 and September 2015 since, but as he showed in the playoff tonight, he could be the steal of the draft, but if he blows up in the combine, he'll jump from a third round grade to a first round grade.
Tier 3 & 4
This is where I can't really get a feel for guys yet, there's a bunch of sub-tiers, and satellite backs mixed in with 3 down backs mixed in with 2 down guys, in no particular order:
2 Down backs and Bell Cows:
B. Love: Size and pass catching prowess is the concern (Stanford had no issue using McCaffrey as an every down back, why didn't they feel the same about passing to Love?).
D. Harris: Has gotten a lot of heat this year, lapping Scarborough in the process.
R. Freeman: He's a sneaky guy like Chubb, may not have the athletic profile which is a major concern (there are some math geeks that have built models that have been incredibly successful in projecting busts amongst highly rated guys, one of the key features is 40 times that are sub 4.65 and 4.5-this is one of the features that put Perine in an ugly spot in their regression tree). Anyway Freeman has been monstrously productive, like Steven Jackson productive at Oregon. Not the same athlete as him, but he has ideal size unlike so many successful Oregon RB's before him.
K Ballage: There were some that saw him as a potential monster for '17, and then his season went over "like a fart in church." Just an absolute horror show of a draft season. The lack of productivity in his final seasons was very troubling after he played so well in his sophomore year. A lot of scouts see him as a potential monster with his enormous size and athleticism. The concern is over why he was just so unproductive. Something clearly was wrong with either him or his offense.
John Kelly: Really burst onto the scene this year. Sneaky talented prospect according to quite a lot of respected sources. I need to look at him.
3rd Down Back and More
R. Jones III: Some have him as high as a top 3-4 back in the class, I'm a bit worried about his size, not sure he can be a bell cow.
Gaskin: Similar issues. Size is not ideal.May go back to school.
Michel: A break out game for an explosive performer whose consistently show the ability to generate huge plays.
R. Penny: Exploded for 2000 plus yards against weak competition in 2016. His combine will be huge for him as unlike pumphrey, he has the size to be a bell cow.
The Day 3 question mark guys:
J. Adams: Some people hate him, some have a fondness for him, and he stunk it up big time in his bowl game against LSU.
Waddle: I love targeting guys who were off a bit in their final year because bad draft years from players who killed it as sophomores and juniors tend to come at a sharp discount and often actually become quality pros.
LJ Scott: Same as Wadley.
This is not a complete list.
#1
RB crops went into the toilet starting in 1987/1988 (in terms of birth year) and the dead period ended between 1992 and 1993. This helps to explain the dearth of backs in the league until recently. Look at the 2009-2014 RB crops. They are a house of horrors.
#2
Additionally, at the time people thought the problem was that with rule changes emphasizing the pass, and deemphasizing running, rb’s were in less demand, and perceived as less valuable. This is only half right. It is true that running backs are less valuable than they used to be. Enough studies have been done to uncover the sharp declines scene in positional productivity as rb’s close in on age 30. As a result teams are less inclined to pay up on 2nd contracts and especially on third contracts. They just unload the backs and draft replacements.
#3
However as mentioned in point #1, the key reason running games were dempehasized was a combination of the dearth of quality running backs crops in combination with rule changes which leads to point #3 which is:
Starting in 2015 we had a series of RB crops that injected a gigantic pile of perceived high end and second tier talent into the league. Depending upon whom you talked to, the '15 class was either loaded with RB talent, or loaded with second tier RB talent. Either way you look at it, when the '15 class came along we saw Todd Gurley, Tevin Coleman, Ameer Abdullah, Melvin Gordon, Duke Johnson TJ Yeldon, Jay Ajayi, and David Johnson, '16 was yet another ghastly crop but with Zeke Elliot in, the problems were glossed over, then '17 came in, and was viewed as similar to the '14 WR class (regarded as the best ever for the position alongside 1996), ditto 2018. In '17 you had 4 RB's with top 20 grades in Fournette, Cook, Mixon, and McCaffrey, then a huge pile of second tier options like Kareem Hunt, Alvin Kamara, Foreman, Perine, Aaron Jones, Marlon Mack, and a third tier with Gallman, Cohen, Jamal Williams etc. Just incredibly deep and top heavy. 2018 was perceived as similarly talented, with a thinner cream up top (Barkley and Guice) but just as deep . In 2019 this spicket shuts off again. Will it be another dead period like 2009-2014? Who knows, we just know that in 2019, it's all about the WR with a crop that would likely rank in the top 3-4 of the past 25 years at the position while RB won't be very special.
In terms of targets you have: (I still have more tape to watch on all of them, but this is my initial projection)
Tier Barkley: A tier all his own, considered the elite of the elite w/a grade potentially as high as any RB drafted since A.P. in 2007. Many view him as better and cleaner as a prospect than Zeke, Fournette, Cook or Mixon, and as talented as A.P. He will be long gone before we pick.
Tier 1:
Guice: In 2016 there were times when people spoke of him in a similar light to Fournette viewing him as as talented or perhaps even moreso. He will be the RB available at our slot potentially worth the selection, maybe, if Ozzie wants to go this route and draft a back out of LSU.
Tier 2:
Chubb: Viewed as the best RB in the '17-'18 class before he tore his ACL in 2015. Has never appeared as fast or as possessing that same second gear he had in 2014 and September 2015 since, but as he showed in the playoff tonight, he could be the steal of the draft, but if he blows up in the combine, he'll jump from a third round grade to a first round grade.
Tier 3 & 4
This is where I can't really get a feel for guys yet, there's a bunch of sub-tiers, and satellite backs mixed in with 3 down backs mixed in with 2 down guys, in no particular order:
2 Down backs and Bell Cows:
B. Love: Size and pass catching prowess is the concern (Stanford had no issue using McCaffrey as an every down back, why didn't they feel the same about passing to Love?).
D. Harris: Has gotten a lot of heat this year, lapping Scarborough in the process.
R. Freeman: He's a sneaky guy like Chubb, may not have the athletic profile which is a major concern (there are some math geeks that have built models that have been incredibly successful in projecting busts amongst highly rated guys, one of the key features is 40 times that are sub 4.65 and 4.5-this is one of the features that put Perine in an ugly spot in their regression tree). Anyway Freeman has been monstrously productive, like Steven Jackson productive at Oregon. Not the same athlete as him, but he has ideal size unlike so many successful Oregon RB's before him.
K Ballage: There were some that saw him as a potential monster for '17, and then his season went over "like a fart in church." Just an absolute horror show of a draft season. The lack of productivity in his final seasons was very troubling after he played so well in his sophomore year. A lot of scouts see him as a potential monster with his enormous size and athleticism. The concern is over why he was just so unproductive. Something clearly was wrong with either him or his offense.
John Kelly: Really burst onto the scene this year. Sneaky talented prospect according to quite a lot of respected sources. I need to look at him.
3rd Down Back and More
R. Jones III: Some have him as high as a top 3-4 back in the class, I'm a bit worried about his size, not sure he can be a bell cow.
Gaskin: Similar issues. Size is not ideal.May go back to school.
Michel: A break out game for an explosive performer whose consistently show the ability to generate huge plays.
R. Penny: Exploded for 2000 plus yards against weak competition in 2016. His combine will be huge for him as unlike pumphrey, he has the size to be a bell cow.
The Day 3 question mark guys:
J. Adams: Some people hate him, some have a fondness for him, and he stunk it up big time in his bowl game against LSU.
Waddle: I love targeting guys who were off a bit in their final year because bad draft years from players who killed it as sophomores and juniors tend to come at a sharp discount and often actually become quality pros.
LJ Scott: Same as Wadley.
This is not a complete list.
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Dom McRaven
Hall of Famer
@RavensMania , what are satellite+ backs?
Yeah but you forgot Kerryon Johnson, Scarbrough, Mike Weber and Martez Carter. And probably a few others who'll go UDFA but carve out a nice role
I haven’t gone through everyone yet.
This was just to say this class is as deep as they come. I'd wait until probably round 5 and find a player that fits the role we want to find for our offense. Whether it's a bruiser or a third down back, there'll be plenty on Day 3 and later. I'll let Dixon and Collins have the main role and I'll find a guy to add something for cheap.
The one thing we are missing is a home-run guy - we have no one who can run away from a secondary
Yeah that'd be my guess too. A guy like Martez Carter could be nice.
Chubb would be very nice as well.
I changed it to 3rd down back and more
I feel a bit lonely on this one, but while it would be almost criminal to not pick a RB in this absurd class, I'm extremely confident in a tandem of Collins and Dixon. Yes, there's a risk of Dixon not being available, which is why we probably should take a guy in the later rounds. But imo until proven otherwise this offense should be theirs, and we should first build a dominant OL to open holes for them. As overachieving as our OL has been this year, it's been horrible in the run game. If I'm correct we're talking about 0.6 yards before contact, that's litterally a half yard of push, basically nothing. Give me a mauler, I don't care if we need to reach, give me someone that will give those two room to operate before their usual self creating, and we'll be talking about a run game that will scare defenses, and that will make Joe Flacco a happy man.
Yes and as I stated in my post, this is the last I’d the great rb classes for a while. We need to draft a rb in this class no matter what.
DeVito52
Ravens Ring of Honor
You’re not lonely on this one I promise. I’d take a RB in round 5 or if there’s an overwhelming BPA RB in round 4 or something, but that’s it.