The Forty, the Fumble, and the Fucking Déjà Vu

[allblackraven]

I feel like the most frustrating aspect from the coaching and leadership standpoint is that each time appears to be treated in isolation. The media answer to whether or not these letups are an issue is that they're not connected, which I understand to say publicly. But it feels like John Harbaugh genuinely believes that. Which is why he's seen dumbfounded in the same fashion in each of these comebacks. That, to me, is the most inexcusable aspect, because we're seemingly going through the same motions that lead to the same result. Which is an exercise in futility. I hope it's being discussed behind the scenes. Whether it's hiring a sports psychologist or making an effort to address it among the players. If it's a taboo topic, it will only help further the trend.

This is my biggest concern. We're far past the "shit happens" stage. It's the same thing over and over again - coaches panicking and your best players making mistakes at critical moments. They can say that they're going to fix it all they want but it's far past the time to see it actually happen. New team, new coaches, new players... it hasn't mattered. It's a problem.

It all starts with too predictable choices made by coaches - passive plays on defense, one dimensional plays on offense when the game is breaking or it needs to be put to bed. It just feels like our players hands are tied and they don't get the opportunity to do what they do best. I am fucking sick of it. It does not work.

 

[Varkcus]

I think Buffalo is a good, top ten dLine with one elite player in Oliver and some solid guys around him but not a ton of depth. Dunno how you would describe them but we will face better DLine's this year. The Oline struggled early and late and sometimes in between, thing is when they did string together some good reps in a row it was bam bam TD cuz that's all Henry & Lamar needed.

They have a really good D line IMO. Oliver, Rousseau, Bosa, Jones and depth guys like Epenesa, Ogunjobi, and T.J. Sanders. Ogunjobi is suspended for first 4 games. They've been known for always rotating in and out fresh bodies.

 

[Simba]

I do think some of them are isolated. I think to a certain extent every event is independent. Play calling, clock management, etc.... those are coaching failures that are consistent. Lack of execution by individual players... there's no "solution" for that. The only viable solution is to change the player. And I don't see a lot of people suggesting we should cut Henry for fumbling, even though to a certain extent, that's what "accountability" looks like.

And I've seen the same stats as anybody else. Most double digit blown leads in 2nd half in like three decades. Most double digit leads blown in the 4th quarter pretty much ever. The thing with those stats is that they also lack the simple context of... you have to be up by that amount to blow the lead. A lot of coaches would blow 4th quarter leads, but their teams are never good enough to have big 4th quarter leads. It's the same argument as like "well I'd rather be 4-0 in Superbowls than 4-3". Dumbest fucking shit ever. I'd rather be the guy who fails more with more opportunities to fail. That means I was good enough to have the opportunity.

I think a change at HC MAY be the solution, but with a change in HC becomes a change in philosophy. Offensive, defensive, etc. I think there's a lot of fans who are like "o well just swap out the HC and keep everything else the same". Rarely does that ever happen. You bring in Belichick tomorrow, and Orr and Monken are gone, and in comes McDaniel and Patricia. Is that better? No idea. Maybe better. Maybe fuck ton worse. These aren't "his players", so he's going to try to obtain the guys he wants. Same concept for literally any other HC that comes in.

Yeah, I get it. For me, I just think it's the lack of mental resilience that we see consistently, and it doesn't really matter who it is. Coaches, players, they all seemingly falter at the same time. And yeah, it's hard to diagnose what the problem is. It is a top down thing or all of these simply isolated things? We'll never really know.

I do think there's plenty of evidence to suggest we're an incredibly undisciplined team though. To me, that's where it starts. Coaches, players, everyone needs to take accountability for that. And I'm sure they are behind closed doors, but now we need to see it in action.

 

[29BmoreBird22]

No wants to hear it because they can't get beyond their biases, but Vorhees and Rosengarten had far worse nights than Faalele

I very much would love if Vorhees succeeded and played well, but I can't lie- after hearing fans absolutely going nuts about how he was "a first round talent" every time he was mentioned, I do feel a little vindicated for pushing back on that narrative.

Still, would have been a lot cooler if he performed like a first round talent.

 

[29BmoreBird22]

I will say one positive thing about the game that you might be surprised to hear-

In a game where most other front seven players were not it, Madibuike had a really good game. I think Zach Orr lacks the creativity to really make the pass rush work, but Madibuike was still out there winning reps consistently and was probably the second best defensive player after Hamilton.

 

[rossihunter2]

I will say one positive thing about the game that you might be surprised to hear-

In a game where most other front seven players were not it, Madibuike had a really good game. I think Zach Orr lacks the creativity to really make the pass rush work, but Madibuike was still out there winning reps consistently and was probably the second best defensive player after Hamilton.

when madubuike and travis jones were on the field together, they looked formidable up front

 

[Truth]

I do think some of them are isolated. I think to a certain extent every event is independent. Play calling, clock management, etc.... those are coaching failures that are consistent. Lack of execution by individual players... there's no "solution" for that. The only viable solution is to change the player. And I don't see a lot of people suggesting we should cut Henry for fumbling, even though to a certain extent, that's what "accountability" looks like.

And I've seen the same stats as anybody else. Most double digit blown leads in 2nd half in like three decades. Most double digit leads blown in the 4th quarter pretty much ever. The thing with those stats is that they also lack the simple context of... you have to be up by that amount to blow the lead. A lot of coaches would blow 4th quarter leads, but their teams are never good enough to have big 4th quarter leads. It's the same argument as like "well I'd rather be 4-0 in Superbowls than 4-3". Dumbest fucking shit ever. I'd rather be the guy who fails more with more opportunities to fail. That means I was good enough to have the opportunity.

I think a change at HC MAY be the solution, but with a change in HC becomes a change in philosophy. Offensive, defensive, etc. I think there's a lot of fans who are like "o well just swap out the HC and keep everything else the same". Rarely does that ever happen. You bring in Belichick tomorrow, and Orr and Monken are gone, and in comes McDaniel and Patricia. Is that better? No idea. Maybe better. Maybe fuck ton worse. These aren't "his players", so he's going to try to obtain the guys he wants. Same concept for literally any other HC that comes in.

A good bit them are isolated, I agree. A large part of the tape display of the miscues at the end of the game was to highlight how much a single player on those snaps could've prevented the narrative from continuing. But I also worry that a number of these missteps are stemming from either clamming up or trying too much to prevent the then seemingly inevitable. As much as short memory is preached, it's idealistic, right? If I'm a player and I begin seeing the signs of the same troubles the team has been through, those similarities are likely to creep in to some extent. It's a human response. To your point, we need to start embracing the almost culture. As a positive. As a, look how many times we're putting ourselves in opportunities to succeed.

That's where I feel like our coaching has struggled. We've consistently tried to distance ourselves from the cumulation of these chokes. When the comeback is happening and we have players having flashbacks and adding undue pressure, they need to know that it's normal and to just make the same play they've always made. The biggest misconception of clutch situations is the need to overperform or rise to the occasion. Most clutches happen by simply not cheating the routine on the routine play. By sidestepping that aforementioned normalcy, that added pressure is now internalized among those players. And then the missteps are even more likely to occur.

For the record, I despise the idea of bringing in Belichick. I don't know if there's a less stable entity to bring in, even before we factor in the likelihood of the potential power struggle. I can't even tell you for sure that bringing in a new coach would immediately solve this dilemma. I'm just hoping for a better approach from the current staff.

 

[rmcjacket23]

A good bit them are isolated, I agree. A large part of the tape display of the miscues at the end of the game was to highlight how much a single player on those snaps could've prevented the narrative from continuing. But I also worry that a number of these missteps are stemming from either clamming up or trying too much to prevent the then seemingly inevitable. As much as short memory is preached, it's idealistic, right? If I'm a player and I begin seeing the signs of the same troubles the team has been through, those similarities are likely to creep in to some extent. It's a human response. To your point, we need to start embracing the almost culture. As a positive. As a, look how many times we're putting ourselves in opportunities to succeed.

That's where I feel like our coaching has struggled. We've consistently tried to distance ourselves from the cumulation of these chokes. When the comeback is happening and we have players having flashbacks and adding undue pressure, they need to know that it's normal and to just make the same play they've always made. The biggest misconception of clutch situations is the need to overperform or rise to the occasion. Most clutches happen by simply not cheating the routine on the routine play. By sidestepping that aforementioned normalcy, that added pressure is now internalized among those players. And then the missteps are even more likely to occur.

For the record, I despise the idea of bringing in Belichick. I don't know if there's a less stable entity to bring in, even before we factor in the likelihood of the potential power struggle. I can't even tell you for sure that bringing in a new coach would immediately solve this dilemma. I'm just hoping for a better approach from the current staff.

I agree.
And to be clear, from the popular stats that are floating around out there about how frequently we blow big leads... we're winning those games north of like 80% of the time. That's what the stats say. It just should obviously be in the 95-100% of the time. Even Andy Reid is blowing those games at like a 10% clip, which ain't great either.

Belichick was just an example. I'd imagine whoever you bring in as a short runway of "win now", which means I'd expect it to be a veteran head coach, potentially a culture changer (because that's the reason you're firing John) and probably somebody with experience in big games. I don't think it'll be a 35 year old OC to pair with Lamar.
Those types of hires almost universally clean house coaching wise and bring in their own guys. In some cases, that includes scouting departments as well.

 

[Baltimorican]

All of that, plus if we are having a referendum on Harbaugh, I can remember quite a few of those double digit leads that did lead to blowouts against teams we thought were pretty good and would give us trouble. So no, if Harbaugh is going to get fired it won't be because of this it will be because he isn't getting it done in the playoffs.

 

[gtalk12]

Who would even be worth bringing in to speak to at HC? John pisses me off but it's not like he's that easy to replace.

 

[Baltimorican]

Who would even be worth bringing in to speak to at HC? John pisses me off but it's not like he's that easy to replace.

really, really hard to get rid of him unless the wheels fall off like they did for Reid in Philly.

 

[Simba]

really, really hard to get rid of him unless the wheels fall off like they did for Reid in Philly.

It’ll be based on playoff success if it happens. Of course they don’t want to see the regular season losses but we’re still a good team and it would take a major meltdown to not be in the dance. But if they limp out of the playoffs like they have the last few years, it seems like they’d strongly consider a different voice to try to get them over that hump.

 

[allblackraven]

Who would even be worth bringing in to speak to at HC? John pisses me off but it's not like he's that easy to replace.

Flores

 

[RaineV1]

Who would even be worth bringing in to speak to at HC? John pisses me off but it's not like he's that easy to replace.

Jesse Minter is a coaching candidate I would want to go for. He has a history with the Ravens on our defensive coaching staff from 2017 to 2020, and he turned around the Charger's defense pretty damn quickly. Also Jim really talks him up. He's someone that can get the team to play with real urgency, and properly as a collective unit.

Robert Saleh is another guy I think would do well here. He did more with the Jets at that time than most others could, and that team fell off a cliff when he got fired mid season. Also is the type of guy to bring discipline to the Ravens, and get our classic defense back.

 

[allblackraven]

Jesse Minter is a coaching candidate I would want to go for. He has a history with the Ravens on our defensive coaching staff from 2017 to 2020, and he turned around the Charger's defense pretty damn quickly. Also Jim really talks him up. He's someone that can get the team to play with real urgency, and properly as a collective unit.

Robert Saleh is another guy I think would do well here. He did more with the Jets at that time than most others could, and that team fell off a cliff when he got fired mid season. Also is the type of guy to bring discipline to the Ravens, and get our classic defense back.

I wouldn't be opposed to Saleh.

Minter might be a good coach but we need a break from Harbaugh connection.

 

[29BmoreBird22]

I agree.
And to be clear, from the popular stats that are floating around out there about how frequently we blow big leads... we're winning those games north of like 80% of the time. That's what the stats say. It just should obviously be in the 95-100% of the time. Even Andy Reid is blowing those games at like a 10% clip, which ain't great either.

To provide the numbers-

When the Ravens have a win probability of 80%+, they win 80.3% of the games, which is below what is expected.

 

[rmcjacket23]

To provide the numbers-

When the Ravens have a win probability of 80%+, they win 80.3% of the games, which is below what is expected.

I agree. Mostly just pointing out that fans have the perception that they have like a 10% win rate in those games, which they don't. The context of the stats are that poor teams will do better in those spots, because they'll have a lot less opportunities to have double digit leads late in games.

 

[Adreme]

I mean I will say this: this was the first time I watched a game and thought John was a worse coach than his brother. Specifically on that final drive Jim had them throwing the ball to kill the clock because they didnt want to punt to Mahomes even though the Chiefs had not done much on offense. Meanwhile the Bills had 40 points already and the Ravens played very conservatively on that last drive as though they had the 2000 defense on the other side.

 

[Carptom1]

Lamar was carrying some awful talent in 2021-2022, the Jags game he had a great bomb to Jackson lmao. It’s still obnoxious to see Bills fans say Derrick Henry is the MVP as if Lamar didn’t win 2 without him.

Not sure how but Bills fans may have temporarily surpassed Cheifs and Bengals fans right now. I like @Carptom1 and we let him down week 1

You are okay too. I had to leave the Bills chat that I had been in for several years. The Bengals fans are not much different. The Bills fans really need to win a Super Bowl, they hope every year but always come up short and they are very salty and make too many excuses of why they fail. My mere presence became too much. That said, the first half of the Giants game was probably the worst half of football I have ever seen. The Chiefs are just not good. I think the line issues along with a lack of offensive playmakers is going to be hard to overcome. BTW Kelce needs to just retire. I have never been a fan of his antics but tolerated him because he was sooo good. I am tired of his sullen, shitty attitude and his overall body language really sucks. Yeah Buddy your life sucks so bad. Get some Prozac and just go away.

 

[gtalk12]

You are okay too. I had to leave the Bills chat that I had been in for several years. The Bengals fans are not much different. The Bills fans really need to win a Super Bowl, they hope every year but always come up short and they are very salty and make too many excuses of why they fail. My mere presence became too much. That said, the first half of the Giants game was probably the worst half of football I have ever seen. The Chiefs are just not good. I think the line issues along with a lack of offensive playmakers is going to be hard to overcome. BTW Kelce needs to just retire. I have never been a fan of his antics but tolerated him because he was sooo good. I am tired of his sullen, shitty attitude and his overall body language really sucks. Yeah Buddy your life sucks so bad. Get some Prozac and just go away.

Chiefs have missed over the years in the draft at their offensive positions.