I think it was week 10 of 2016? vs the browns losing 6-7
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The 2nd Half, The 1st Half and The Meltdowns
- Thread starter rossihunter2
- Start date
Dom McRaven
Hall of Famer
I've stopped referring to WInk as Defensive Coordinator. Until further notice, he's done enough (without a great pass-rush for years, mind you) to get the promoted rank of Secretary of Defense.
ThatsMyJoeTerback
Ravens Ring of Honor
Nope, we won so it's not a big game
ravenslord
Ravens Ring of Honor
I had not drank so much beer in the 1st half since the Flacco - Cam Cameron days of ole .
Great drive by Tua
organizedchaos21
Practice Squad
This is a joke or what?
Correct: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/201611100rav.htm
Note that teams losing at halftime lose something like 80% of the time, so 20 in a row isn't that out of the ordinary. That number obviously increases significantly when trailing by more.
Also, if we're going to focus on that streak, the opposite streak was also pretty impressive (not sure how high it got before last week though).
Dom McRaven
Hall of Famer
Other from the fact that this was a crucial game for Wild Card implication (assuming we stayed the course), another big reason why I wanted this to win was because of THIS. I never forgot this moment where he was clowning us.
cdp
Ravens Ring of Honor
I'm not sure if it's true, that's also why I wrote "apparently".
rmcjacket23
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But, but, but... Twitter says we need to run it more, and run it on first down everytime.
Because Twitter...
ThatsMyJoeTerback
Ravens Ring of Honor
That's one of the things analytics stresses the most right? Passing on first down is usually more efficient.
and we've never done it enough despite being an organisation that's highly invested in analytics
gtalk12
Ravens Ring of Honor
I wanted us to continue to build on those offensive series, because it is clear whatever go into Lamar to start the half worked. We marched right down the field before that Gus fumble. Then proceeded to score on the next 2 drives with ease. I believe Lamar was perfect or almost perfect on those 3 drives. I know we only had 2 offensive drives after that but considering how much we struggled recently I felt like letting them play would help.
he went 10/10 in the 2nd half
rmcjacket23
Ravens Ring of Honor
Well, in fairness, analytics would tell you that pretty much no team in the league throws it enough. Like a lot of us joke about how its a passing league and some teams just laughably abandon the run, but even those teams are pretty far away from achieving "max efficiency" when it comes to play calling.
Ironically, while you are correct that basically all of the analytics suggest passing on first down is optimal, they would also suggest that running on 3rd down, even as far out as 8-10 yards, is actually optimal.
cdp
Ravens Ring of Honor
Going by EPA this is actually true.
Going by success rate this still holds
I think last season was an anomaly. Here are the numbers for 1st down. In both seasons we're top 3 in rushing rate.
2019: run rate on 1st down: 62%; 5.2 YPC; 17% 1st down rate; Passing: 25% 1st down rate and 6.9 YPA
2020: run rate on 1st down: 65%; 3.9 YPC; 12% 1st down rate; Passing: 38% 1st down rate and 8.5 YPA
Although the perception is that we're clearly worse than last year, the numbers suggest otherwise. Our passing offense is much improved. What sets us back for 2nd and 3rd down is that we gain 1.3 yards less per rush on 1st down. Also, to all the "run the ball more" crowd out there: we're running the ball even more than last year - it's just not as efficient as last year. It actually limits what we can call on 2nd and 3rd down. The 2019 numbers also show that passing is more efficient than rushing even though we had the best rushing offense in NFL history.
Going by EPA this is actually true.
Going by success rate this still holds
I think last season was an anomaly. Here are the numbers for 1st down. In both seasons we're top 3 in rushing rate.
2019: run rate on 1st down: 62%; 5.2 YPC; 17% 1st down rate; Passing: 25% 1st down rate and 6.9 YPA
2020: run rate on 1st down: 65%; 3.9 YPC; 12% 1st down rate; Passing: 38% 1st down rate and 8.5 YPA
Although the perception is that we're clearly worse than last year, the numbers suggest otherwise. Our passing offense is much improved. What sets us back for 2nd and 3rd down is that we gain 1.3 yards less per rush on 1st down. Also, to all the "run the ball more" crowd out there: we're running the ball even more than last year - it's just not as efficient as last year. It actually limits what we can call on 2nd and 3rd down. The 2019 numbers also show that passing is more efficient than rushing even though we had the best rushing offense in NFL history.
exactly - we ran the ball with historic levels of efficiency last year - that put us way ahead of the 8-ball and basically turned our offensive philosophy into an outlier
the fact we didnt adjust philosophically to follow the more general analytics views on basic things like this has led to predictable results
it's pretty notable that everyone (including charles davis) said we should go back to the running game when we came out of the half and then this happened:
1st play: 14 yard pass
2nd play: 14 yard pass
3rd play 9 yard pass
4th play: (2nd and short) 2 yard run
5th play: 21 yard pass
6th play: 8 yard run
7th play: (2nd down) 4 yard run
8th play: fumble on 1st and 3 (looked like it was gonna be a 3 yard loss before the fumble though)
the drive that finally got us going was predominantly the passing game - and it opened up the run for later drives
key point for me is that clearly lamar just started taking what was there - and he also started making the decision to scramble quicker too