I watched a ton of tape on Josh Allen today. I figured it out. Cam Newton is a shitty pro comparison. One of the worst I have ever seen. Cam Newton's college days saw him dominating high level competition in his one year as a starter because he was a QB in a linebackers body. He was tearing teams up with his legs and his arm. Cam in college made mistakes here and there, but almost all of his problems were correctable from a coaching perspective(which it has).
I don't see that with Allen. I question his football IQ in addition to his mechanics. There are WAY too many times where he should just throw the ball away and he doesn't. This is an easy fix but that's just the tip of the iceberg. He chucks it down deep, it will be a duck, and boom, intercepted. Takes too many uncessary risks. Accuracy is porous at times. Sure, he can make those elite throws because his arm is a cannon.. Ask Jay Cutler how well that worked out for him during his career. In terms of pure strength, Cutler might have arguably the strongest arm in the game. But it's not the best. The Flacco comparisons are crap too.. While several accuse Joe of being mediocre throughout his career. That's not the case. Inconsistent as all hell, yes, but when Joe is in rythmn, he's accurate as hell, he's reading defenses at a solid level. When Flacco is comfortable he's a QB that no defense in the NFL wants to play. Allen doesn't do any of that crap. He's porous at reading a defense which is absolutely concerning when it comes to the fact that he played lower level competition, not only does he seem to occasionally force things, but he doesn't learn from his mistakes and he just tries to do too much. He's not nearly as good throwing on the run as some would think. Some of the decisions he does make are unnecessary risks that aren't 50/50 more like 20/80. His pocket presence.. Needs work. He won't be able to only thrive off of his athletic ability when the linebackers in the NFL are not only bigger, but just as fast as he is.
Allen is not just a project, he's a money pit. He has the tolls to suceed and a good head on his shoulders but he literally needs to land in the best situation humanly possible to have a chance at being a franchise QB. His arm and athletic ability are intruiging. Best arm in terms of strength to probably come out of the draft since Jamarcus Russell. Experience in poor weather because Wyoming sucks(lol), played in a pro style offense. But the concerns are pretty damning as far as things go.
Poor footwork
Not accurate at all making a lot of that arm strength useless
Not great at going through progressions
Questionable decision making on the field
Tries to do too much at times
Pocket Presence questionable.
Athletic ability won't translate nearly as well to the NFL where the LBs are bigger than he is and just as fast.
I'll be honest with you all. I wouldn't touch this guy at all in the first round if I needed a QB. If I had a guy who I was confident in coaching him up while he sat on the bench for 3-4 years.. I'd consider it. But I can't. His questions far outweigh his positive qualities. I don't see how he is the first QB on so many people's boards. He has Rosen beat in athleticism and character.. But that's it. His arm isn't that much better than Rosen's is and Rosen can do things on a football field that Allen just isn't able too. I doubt he can learn it that quickly.
Pro Comparison: Cardale Jones/Logan Thomas. Yeah. I'm going here. Both of those two were from the same coin. Uber athletic, big arms. No accuracy, poor pocket presence. Game did not transition well to the pros at all. Allen is going to have to land in literally the most ideal situation humanly possible to have a chance at being good. If an NFL team decides to throw him into the fire he's going to get massacred. He may be able to run a pro style offense, but the jump in competition is going to be especially hard for him. Not just because he cannot read NFL defenses to save his life, but because these defenses are far more talented than the ones that he played against in College.... Sure, his supporting cast will be better too, but it's going to be too much to be taken in. Allen has a high ceiling, dare I see in terms of a pure talent perspective he has the highest ceiling in the entire class. But he also has the highest bust potential and i'ts not even close. If he is brought in to be a day 1 starter he's not going to be killed: he's going to be massacred. He might fail anyway even if he does sit behind someone.
I'll be completely honest with you all. It would not surprise me in the slightest if Josh Allen took an unexpected fall on draft day. Hope the bills are dumb enough to trade the farm with us
